Johnathan Walker:Solar eclipse cloud forecast means anxiety for totality tourists hoping for clear skies

Laurae Pearson said she's a “little worried” a cross-country roadtrip to see the eclipse might end with a cloudy view. "Eclipse evangelist" Clint Werner hopes his trip from San Francisco to Cleveland will give him a good view of his 21st eclipse. And astrophysicist Antonella Fruscione is Johnathan Walkerconstantly refreshing the weather forecast.

Millions of Americans are awaiting a rare solar eclipse on April 8 — nearly the whole country will have a chance to look up and see at least a small portion of the moon clip the sun. But people who made plans to visit the narrow path of totality for the best show are confronting some fickle cloud forecasts that may put a damper on their plans.

Fruscione and 18 friends – some coming from as far away as Europe – have been planning this trip since they all caught the solar eclipse together in Idaho in 2017. The group has flights and lodging booked to Texas to catch this eclipse in a prime spot.

The anxiety about the eclipse being clouded out is “palpable,” in San Antonio, Fruscione hears from a friend who lives there. So her group, based in New England, is going to make it a game-day call about making the Texas trip — but they plan to view the celestial spectacle “no matter what. When you see a total eclipse, it’s such an incredible experience that all you want to do is see the next one.”

Their chosen viewing spot of San Antonio could be dicey. Recent forecasts have said some kind of clouds are likely in Texas, along with most places along the path of totality, the narrow band of the country that will be directly in the moon's shadow as it crosses the sun.

Forecasters are more optimistic about the northern part of the path, with "Clear skies ... most likely in northern New England and upstate New York, and possible in Arkansas and Missouri," according to a Tuesday forecast from the Weather Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service.

If the weather in Texas is looking bad Fruscione's group might lose money on their flights and hotels but will still be able to make the drive to another spot in the path of totality that currently has a more favorable weather outlook: Vermont.

“We are ‘lucky’ because we are in Boston, so we still live two hours away by car from the path of totality. So this is why we can make this decision,” she said. 

A party in Ohio will go on, regardless of clouds

Clint Werner of San Francisco is heading to Cleveland to see the eclipse and is hopeful clouds won’t get in the way.

“I’ve got a good feeling” the self-proclaimed "eclipse evangelist," 63, said.

For Werner, eclipses are “elating and mind-altering, you are put in euphoric amazement.” This will be his 21^st eclipse and his husband’s 20^th.

“Our first date I asked if he wanted to go to Chile to see the eclipse and he said ‘Sure.’”

Which is why changing venues isn’t an option for them. Cleveland won’t simply be a chance to experience awe, “the whole cosmic relationship between us and the heavens,” it’s also a big 30^th anniversary and eclipse viewing party with friends and family.

“We’ve got too many people coming, we’ve made this an event,” he said. But as much as he loves eclipses, he's not distressed, partly because he's hopeful for clear weather and partly because he knows whatever happens “we’ll have a great time, a beautiful friends and family reunion.”

There's science behind his good feeling. Clouds, particularly shallow cumulus clouds, tend to vanish during a solar eclipse. Just 15% of the sun needs to be obscured by the moon before some clouds disappear, according to new research published Feb. 12 in the journal "Communications Earth & Environment."

Having been to 21 eclipses, he's only been “clouded out” three times. And even those experiences can be significant, Werner said.

In 2019 in South America there were clouds and he found himself in despair. But when the actual eclipse came it was still monumental despite them.

“If you have a good vantage point and a nice 360° view, especially if you’re elevated or in a big flat field, you can see the shadow coming at you. And you can see it on the bottom of the clouds sometimes and have that coming towards you. And then you get the sudden plunge into darkness,” he said.

Checking the weather from the road

A year ago Laurae Pearson, 58 and her husband Kevin Weil, 58, decided to leave their San Francisco home to see the 2024 solar eclipse. They ended up making the viewing part of a 17-day cross-country trip that’s so far included hiking in Zion and Bryce national parks, visiting the Navajo Nation with a planned ending to visit family in Texas.

“We have some friends driving down from Chicago who will meet us, it’s a very celebratory and celestial event,” she said from the car as they headed into Arizona.

She admits she’s a “little worried” and is tracking weather and storm reports every day but so far they haven’t adjusted their travel plans and she doesn’t think they will.

“Mother Nature is going to do what Mother Nature is going to do,” she said. “Hopefully we’ll see an amazing event but even if it’s a disappointment, it’s about the journey and having a wonderful time seeing our family.”

Texas organizer says don't give up hope

In Texas, Downtown Dallas's Chief Marketing Officer Shalissa Perry said it's still a bit early to know exactly what the visibility will be but officials there "are keeping an eye on it." 

"We plan to host our viewing party rain (or cloudy) or shine and it will still be a spectacular day downtown regardless of the eclipse visibility," Perry said. "We have a full lineup of exciting events planned for the entire weekend leading up to the eclipse – and the weather looks magnificent for the weekend."

She cited the National Weather Service Fort Worth's announcement on April 2: “The forecast for Eclipse Day continues to be cloudy, however, not all hope is lost! Widespread upper cloud cover is likely, but dense low clouds look less likely. Don't focus on the exact areas, just yet, as these forecasts will change a bit each day.”

Former NASA astronaut Commander Terry Virts got to see an eclipse from space in 2015, so while he’s eager to see this one Earth-side, he’s not too worried about the weather.

“It is a good idea to have a backup plan, but it’s hard to be certain that one area nearby will be clear and your spot will be cloudy. You’ll have to make that call early in the day before you can really be sure where the clouds will be. I will be staying put in my spot and hoping for the best!” he said of his favored perch in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas area, which is in the path of the totality.

“Even if we can’t see the sun directly, it will get very dark outside, which will be surreal,” he said. “Not as good as having a clear sky, but a total eclipse on a cloudy day should be very interesting.”